09-24-2025 — Then again, maybe not

Howdy all. Did it rain? Not really. There was one very short shower, and some really light sprinkles, on 9/22 (Monday), but it has all added up to maybe 1/10 inch. Most went all around here again. South or East or West? Yes a bunch. And lots over the lake to the North. Today, all of the above.

This was after a sprinkle. Notice the “clear” water above the rusty, dirty stain in the bird bath. The clear is the new water. Still at the same depth today.

There is the possibility of more coming today/tomorrow, but less in forecast than prior 3 days. Maybe they will be just as wrong, but in the opposite direction, and the bird bath will overflow.. Yeah, right.

I did something Monday that I thought I wouldn’t do again after a year or two ago. I am trying to “time” the stock market. With the large increase in stock prices, over the last 6-8 months, that mostly seem unwarranted, my gut says this year end won’t be so nice. I see things like the increasing unemployment, and inflation taking off, as being catalysts for a downturn. Those two items have the making of a stagflation cycle. And, with the uncertainty of tariffs, or the removal of tariffs, and the government possibly having to refund them, that feels like more inflation is possible.

Not to mention the federal reserve is walking a tight line between doing what they believe is fiscally responsible, and what is a political necessity. Or that a governmental shutdown is quite possibly happening to start the 4th quarter. That could cause more unemployment and make things financially and socially worse for a large segment of the population.

Anyway, I moved some of my IRA out of S&P 500 and Bond funds, into cash. Not a lot, but it is now closer to 25-28% cash. And I am wishing I sold more.

But, this will ensure, regardless of market fluctuations, that I will have available cash for the next few years. The idea being, even in a downturn, I can survive semi-comfortably, and when the recovery begins, I will still be doing okay.

Have I made a good decision? Only time will tell. I’d love to be totally wrong, and the economy just takes off at this point and the rising tide lifts all ships.

That would mean we could all Enjoy Life

Update at 6 pm. Another tenth of an inch or so fell since noon. Things actually got wet…